3/6/16 Ian Mackenzie
3:40 Kevin Harvick (+400)
Nascar returns to Sin City for the Kobalt 400. Last year Kevin Harvick was the favorite to win, and he did exactly that by leading 142 of 267 laps and took home the win. Over the past 14 years, no driver who was favored higher than 10-1 has won in Las Vegas. Joe Gibbs racing has been dominating this year and Harvick will be looking to change that and get Stewart-Hass back into the mix.
I will be tossing the dice on Kevin Harvick at 4 to 1 today to repeat.
Kurt Busch (+1000)
Another Stewart-Hass driver to look out for is Kurt Busch, who had a great qualifier by shattering the record lap mph by nearly 2 mph.
3/6/16 Jon Balant
4:30p: Maryland at Indiana
Indiana has already locked up the Big 10 season title, but we don’t think they’ll let off the gas on their senior day, hosting a Terps squad that has struggled on the road in conference play. Indiana, meanwhile is 12-4 ATS and 16-0 outright at home on the season, and it’s no mystery how difficult it is for opponents to play at Assembly Hall. Personally I think this line is too low. Indiana has too much size for a guard oriented Maryland team, but still has the guard play in Yogi Ferrell to keep up with the Terps talented backcourt. I think we’re getting line value here in case oddsmakers view this as a “meaningless” game for Indiana. Also appears to be about an 80% public lean on the road dog. I’m not quite sure why the public continues to back this overrated Maryland team. Anytime we see a situation like this we attack the home favorite.
Play: Indiana -5 (2 units)
3:30pm: Oklahoma City Thunder @ Milwaukee Bucks
The Thunder are really struggling since the All Star Break, going 2-6 outright. Their schedule hasn’t done them any favors, but their late game collapses have been concerning. Milwaukee is by no means an above average team, however they’ve had some success at home vs western conference teams lately, with outright wins against Minnesota, Houston, and the Lakers since the break. Obviously the Thunder are a completely different animal, but they’re also a vulnerable team right now and the Bucks have enough length on the perimeter and size down low to hang around the number. Let’s not forget the Bucks dealt the Warriors their first loss of the year at home back in December. The money line is tempting, but we’re just going to put a unit on the spread here in case Durant and Westbrook decide to go off. The Bucks are 16-13 at home ATS and 18-11 outright, but even more eye opening is the Thunder are 9-19-1 on the road ATS.
Play: Milwaukee Bucks +7.5 (1u)
LIVE BET: Bucks 2H PK
4:30p: Fairfield vs Monmouth, MAAC Tournament Semifinal
Monmouth should continue to roll through their conference in this MAAC semifinal game, having defeated Fairfield twice this season by margins of 12 points and 24 points.
Play: Monmouth -8 (1 unit)
4pm: Phoenix Suns @ Memphis Grizzlies
We have an autobet trend play here on the 1st quarter under for a Memphis home game. Going to roll into the game under as well. Last time Suns visited Memphis in December the score was 95-93 and that was with Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight. Suns are extremely depleted and are in complete tank mode. Coming off a rare win in Orlando the other night which saw Alex Len score a career high 31 points (hope you picked him up in your fantasy leagues), this is the 4th game of a road trip for the Suns. We expect them to be flat and help contribute to a low scoring game.
Plays: 1st Quarter Under 52 (1 unit)
Game Under 206 (2 units)
6pm: Portland Trailblazers @ Detroit Pistons
Blazers are deep into this road trip and running out of gas, meanwhile the public is all over them. Pistons had a tough loss in New York last night but should bounce back here at home.
Play: Detroit Pistons +1.5 (1 unit)
Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat
The line is probably right where it should be at 14. Don’t love either side, would actually lean Philly here to be annoying and catch the Heat being lazy. One thing the tanking Sixers cannot do is close out games, so whether they’re battling for the outright win late or they’re down points, we can expect them to struggle in the 4th quarter. We’re going to lock in the Heat 4th quarter line before tip.
Play: Miami Heat 4th Quarter -2 (1 unit)
6:30p: Houston Rockets @ Toronto Raptors
For some reason the public is backing Houston here. Houston can’t defend the perimeter to save their life, and the Raptors have been putting up big numbers at home.. We’re going to play Toronto and their Team Total Over.
Plays: Raptors -7.5 (1 unit) Raptors Team Total Over 110.5 (1 unit)
Edmonton Oilers (EVEN) over Winnipeg Jets 7pm and St. Louis Blues (EVEN) over Minnesota Wild 8pm
NBA 3-3, -2.5 units
NCAAB 0-2 -2.2 units
YTD -4.7 units
NHL 2-1, +1.4 units
5-6, -3.3 units