Week 6 NFL Picks

Picks by Steve Johnson

So i’ve been super busy so far this season, but I’m going to try and get this going each and every week. Even though I haven’t been posting, I have been making picks. You can see my picks made from the first 5 weeks of the season below.

Week 6 2017 1pms

This is the complete opposite of week 5, as there are a lot of big spreads. Last week picking survivor picks were impossible, this week is a breath of fresh air. There are 5 spreads of a touchdown or more, 4 of them at home, with New England visiting the Jets.

CLE +7.5 @ HOU 1 unit

Loss, -1 unit

The Texans lost J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus last week, that hurts them a lot. Some say J.J. Watt isn’t the same player, but tackles and sacks on the stat line doesn’t tell the story of how much of an impact he has. This spread was at 10.5 up until this morning, reverse line movement, I’ll take the Browns with the hook. Only betting 1 unit, being that it’s the Browns.

NE -9 @ NYJ 3 units

Loss, -3 units

I’m not a believer in the New York Jets. They’ve beat the Jaguars, Browns, and Dolphins and now we’re talking upset? Bill Belichick is 17-9 ATS on extra rest, Gronk has had 14 days rest.  The Jets are now missing Bilal Powell, who has been great for them. I’m taking the Pats to bring the Jets back down to earth in a blow out.

ATL -14 vs MIA

The Falcons are coming off a bye week, in which they had extra time to think about how they got beat by the Bills. Julio Jones is active for the Falcons, but DeVante Parker is out. I think the Falcons roll here, but I’m not willing to eat 2 touchdowns. No play for me

NO -6 vs DET 3 units

Win

This line tells me exactly what I need to know. Your initial reaction to seeing the Lions getting 6 points is that it’s a lot, and that’s exactly why the public is on the Lions. The Saints are coming off a bye, and this is a revenge game from a week 13 matchup last year when the Lions came into New Orleans and won. I like the Saints for 3 units.

GB -3 @ MIN 3 units

Loss

The Packers are getting hot and healthy. The Vikings…not so much. The Vikings could have easily lost that game on Monday night to the Bears. Could you say the same thing about the Packers? Sure you could. But now the Vikings are without Bradford, Cook and Diggs! Keep in mind that the Super Bowl is in Minnesota this year, you can’t tell me that Aaron Rodgers isn’t thinking about getting nice and comfy in that stadium today.

BAL -5.5 vs CHI

Loss

I don’t really like either team in this game, the under 39.5 is probably a safe bet. The Bears are coming off a heart breaking home loss on MNF, and the Ravens are traveling home from Oakland. The Ravens defense should give Trubisky some issues, playing in his first NFL away game in a hostile environment. The Ravens are a couple weeks away from getting some players back, I imagine John Harbaugh is just trying to keep them afloat.

WASH -11.5 vs SF

Loss

Another crazy high spread, it’s one of those weeks. Normally I like taking advantage of points, but I’ve taken a lot of favorites today. The Niners are playing their third consecutive road game, while the Skins are coming off a bye week. Cousins should be able to expose this defense, considering Jacoby Brisett did last week. I like the Redskins to win and cover, but not enough to put anything on it.

Week 6 2017 Late Games

LAR +1 @ JAC

Win

The Jaguars are coming off a dominate performance, in which they intercepted Ben Roethlisberger 5 times. The Rams off a divisional loss to the Seahawks at home. The Rams are a different team this year, they’ve been blocking better and have allowed Todd Gurley and Jared Goff to play their games. I don’t like that they have to go to London next week, being that teams are 12-22-2 ATS pre London. I don’t think the Jags are good enough to be favored, even at home where they might have the worst home field advantage in football. I don’t like either side enough to bet on it. I’d probably lean toward the U42.

TB -2.5 @ ARI. 4 Units

Loss

The Cardinals just got rolled by the Eagles, while the Buccaneers had extra time to think about a win that slipped through their fingers last Thursday vs New England. The Bucs could have easily won that game, if Nick Folk didn’t miss 3 field goals. The Cards however have to travel to London after this game (pre London ATS record mentioned above). I don’t think the Cardinals are the same team they were, and not just because of losing David Johnson. They just don’t look like a very good team, Palmer looks old and their defense isn’t any good. I like the Bucs a lot here.

PIT +3.5 @ KC. 5 Units

Win

I lost on betting the Texans vs the Chiefs last week, but I still feel like it was the right play, I’m doubling down on going against the Chiefs this week. Pittsburgh just got completely embarrassed at home, and there’s no way I buy that Ben is done. Statistically Roethlisberger performs badly on the road, but I’m willing to bet against that in a bounce back game tonight. The Steelers get back T Marcus Gilbert this week, in time to try and contain Justin Houston and the Chiefs pass rush. I think the Steelers will give the Chiefs some issues up the middle with Laurent Duvernay-Tardif out and the Steelers being stout inside. Keep in mind the Chiefs have a division rival coming up on Thursday, in the Raiders.

OAK -3 vs LAC

This game is unbettable in my opinion, with Carr’s injury completely up in the air. They’re saying he will play, but why is the line still 3? Seems a little weird to me. BEst to just sit this one out.

DEN -13 vs NYG

No pick

IND @ TEN -7.5

No pick yet

 Week 6 Results: 3-6, -7.4 units


 Week 1: 1-2, -5.7 units

LAR -167 vs IND +359.28 W
SF +4 vs CAR -500 L
CLE + 7.5 vs PIT -1000 L

Week 2: 4-1-1, +14.2 units

PIT -7 vs MIN +909.09 W
TEN -113 vs JAC +884.95 W
BUF +6 vs CAR Push
OAK -13.5 vs NYJ +909.09 W
MIA/LAC O46 -500 L
DEN +2.5 vs DAL +636.36 W

Week 3: 4-4, +0.2 units

LAR -149 vs SF +671.14 W
LAR -3 vs SF -1000 L
CHI +7.5 vs PIT +909.09 W
JAC +3 vs BAL +681.82 W
MIA/NYJ O43.5 -500 L
DEN/BUF U39.5 -500 L
DET +3 vs ATL -750 L
PHI -230 vs NYG +434.78 W

Week 4: 2-5, -5.6 units

MIA +3 vs NO -500 L
CAR +9 vs NE +227.27 W
LAR +6 vs DAL +909.09 W
TEN -2.5 vs HOU -500 L
JAC/NYJ U38.5 -1000 L
CLE +3 vs CIN -1000 L
BAL +3 vs PIT -250 L

Week 5: 6-1, + 9.5 units

IND -1 vs SF +454.55 W
CIN -160 vs BUF +625 W
MIA Pick Em vs TEN +454.55 W
SEA +2 vs LAR +454.55 W
PHI -250 vs ARI +501.60 W
HOU +2 vs KC -1500 L
CHI +3.5 vs MIN 909.09 W

Year To Date: 17-13-1, +12.6 units